Twenty 18 was a very interesting year in the
property market where we saw the peak of both Melbourne and Sydney as well as seeing those
markets going backwards a little bit. I think southeast Queensland and Brisbane did go up
throughout the years. I correct, yeah. I think golden had four percent. Sunny coast did almost
seven percent in Brisbane. Surprised everyone doing almost three percent. So when you guys
are thinking that everything’s over for the Australian property market because Sydney
and Melbourne have gone backwards. That’s not necessarily the case over the entirety
of Australia. And so looking at those results from 2018, I want us to take some time today
to interview Ben. Bit of a different vibe here. I’m going to be interviewing him because
this is his specialty is is 2019 a good time to be investing in property and we were talking
about the different markets, talking about the Australian market as a whole and also
talking about met you guys and your investment goals. So initial thoughts. Ben, what are you thinking?
Going from 2018 into 2019 with the current state of the Australian property market, the
biggest thing that I’ve noticed in terms of the last five months in the Australian market
is a nationwide shift in sentiment and we know that investors and humans are creatures
of habit and when the herd moves one way, generally the rest of the herd moves with
it and so you know anybody that’s invested in shares understands this. Anyone that’s
invested in Crypto, anyone that owns a business or is in a job that is in an industry where
cycles actually have an impact, would understand this. Anyone that’s an investor understands
that things go up and down, but people’s sentiment, which drugs the marketplace has moved from.
Okay, let’s see what happens to our. Okay, let’s sort of see what happens and just watch
it for a little while. Yeah, so obviously we had, was it 2017 and
color? I’m not sure if the 2018 was that frenzy in Sydney and Melbourne where people were
just buying property sort of mid seventh, 2017. I felt like it was the top of New South
Wales and then I think by the end of 2017, early 2018, it was the top of Melbourne, so
there’d been actually topped out for a lot longer than people expect. Like I, I believe
the current downturn has been running for almost 18 months now in Australia. We just
haven’t really noticed. Yeah, people just haven’t noticed that it was an actual downturn.
Like when you look at indicators that I look at, um, it was pretty clear to see, you know,
Perth is almost down 25 percent now from its peak or sorry, Darwin’s almost 25 percent
down from its peak pervs 15 to 20 percent down depending on whose data Sydney’s now. Ten percent down from its top depending on
the suburb and Melbourne’s, you know, potentially again whose data three to seven percent down.
So it a wide. We’ve been moving in this direction for awhile. It’s just that maybe has really
been hammering home for everyone for the last six months. Yeah. So while they, Brisbane
different, like why did Brisbane grow in this market when Sydney and Melbourne went backwards?
Um, there’s a number of reasons why. And again for 2019, um, I think it’s going to be a relatively
flat year. In fact, I believe it’s going to be a year in most marketplaces. Sydney, Melbourne,
Perth, and Darwin as well where property prices will continue to go backwards. I don’t see
Brisbane or southeast Queensland running away as a whole. I mean running away like Sydney
and Melbourne, 10 percent plus growth, the, you know what I mean, like crazy speculative
growth. Um, but certain suburbs are performing extremely
well in south Queensland right now. Like I got a text this morning from rory, one of
my clients we bought from a suburb 21 case in the city for him. He’s like, then just
checked out quarterly growth three percent this quarter. Just checked out 12 months growth
of 10 point nine percent. Good effort night. And I’m like, fuck you bro. Sydney’s gone
backwards by Chad present. You’re not 20 percent on where you were going to vegas and we’re
having a laugh about it together, but why I want to frame the conversation is to, you
know, it’s, it’s definitely not a year where everything you buy is going to turn to gold.
Certain markets in Brisbane and southeast Queensland and I think southeast Queensland
will be Australia’s top performer. Hobart’s still might keep running away, but who the
fuck wants to own Haber? Seriously, like not when it’s gone up by 50
percent in four years. Whereas Brisbane didn’t have that run when Sydney and Melbourne and
Hobart and everything went up. Brisbane, it just steadily increased. It didn’t have dramatic
double digit growth. Yeah. So Brisbane actually hasn’t had any meaningful prospect at all
were coming into its 11th flat year. And what do you mean by flat? Yeah, flat year to me
as a year without any double digit growth. Okay. So it’s still growing. It’s not completely
flat line, zero percent growth. It’s growing, but just not. If you look at core logic in
the last 10 years, it’s done zero point nine percent per year. So it’s done less than one
percent per year for a decade now, Brisbane, which is pretty close to the heart, they just
there, but it’s not telling too much, but that’s the problem with averages because certain
suburbs in Brisbane have done 60 to 80 percent in 10 years. Others have gone backwards by 20 percent.
Others have just tucked away it three or four percent. So average is you’ve got to be careful
of. But the reason Brisbane is doing well is one, it’s been flat for a long period of
time to according to the ABS, more Australians and moving to Brisbane than anywhere else
in Australia. Right now I’m three. We’ve got $43,000,000,000 worth of guaranteed projects
in pipeline, private and public that I can see between Goldie, Brisbane and sunny coast
over the next seven to 10 years, which is just huge amounts of work with the current
labor force we can’t delete. Um, another thing that’s really interesting up here is that
wages have been growing exponentially because there’s a shortage of skilled labor. And so
the average household income in Brisbane vishy we’ll finish higher than the average household
income in Melbourne. I remember seeing that. We did a video on
this where the average income in Brisbane is higher, but housing affordability in Melbourne
was obviously off the charts compared to Brisbane. It’s 57 percent more expensive in Melbourne
to buy than it is in Brisbane right now. And people in Brisbane on average earning more
than people in Melbourne. Yeah. So when we look at long term trends,
you know, history suggests that the next 10 years, based on the last 50 years worth of
cycles looks nice for Brisbane. It’s, it’s the time of the cycle where things historically
overnight and to 20th. So who do better up here? Um, you know, an, uh, an issue that
we had in Brisbane at 12 months ago. It was a big topic of conversation that was all over
the Australian majors. Brisbane is chronically oversupplied by city units and we thought
we’re going to have 10 years worth of oversupply. It’s caught everyone by surprise. But according
to mark Matousek now Brisbane’s the only unit market in Australia where it’s under supplied
from property fucking perspective like just shows you, you know what I mean, to take everything
with a grain of salt and I think 2019 is definitely one of those years where you can buy the hype
and most people will and smart investors like you and I like it. There is serious buying
operation. So can it be a good time to buy in 2019 she. Yeah. Yeah. Like I mean do you want to,
do you want to buy when everyone else is buying at the peak for a profit or do you want to
strategically buy the right market at the right time at the bottom? Like I wouldn’t
be rushing out and buying Sydney or Melbourne because even if they’ve dropped by 10 percent,
they’re still up 80 percent where they were six years ago. Like Brisbane and Sydney have
a ways to go. I still believe that they are correct by between five and 10 percent. HTC,
like there’s still a full for Sydney and Melbourne before we hit bottom. Yeah. And obviously we don’t have a crystal ball,
so none of this don’t take this as fact. Just check out the videos that we’re doing
in 2015, 16, 17 where all of this stuff has been documented for like three years. Well that’s the thing we were talking about
when everyone was going crazy and Sydney were like, this has to peak too soon. This just
seems excessive growth. What is going on here are just. I feel like we were talking about
that, yeah, 18 months, two years ago that we wouldn’t really want to look at investing
in those markets. And we’ve always talked about, look at the Herron, todd white month
in review report. Pick the markets that are at the bottom or that are starting to increase
rather than markets that are peaking or near the top of their market cycle and investing
in the right time in the market is really important. And we’ve always talked about that
as well as investing in a way that you can be cashflow neutral or cashflow positive.
Yeah, like Chico Thousand and 19 and 28 going to be what
I believe the two best years of buying from a sophisticated investor point of view in
Australia in the last decade. Why is that? It’s hard to say without being technical,
but if you look at the time can go technical and then I can explain it in layman’s terms.
So what we’re coming into over the next two years is the mid cycle. Slow down. If you
know anything, if you had a history in Europe or America, you know that a crazy amount of
accuracy, good last two years he’s made socket, slide down, has happened and Australia is
no different than America. We’re so connected to the global economy now that damaged sokolow
recession points equal a midsize recession points loosely and what a mid cycle, slow
down point represents. People feel like the whole world is going to fall on it’s head
right now. Like that is a sentiment out there. People
can’t differentiate because they don’t know the history of what is happening right now,
which is a point where generally stock markets will get hammered in the next two years. Particularly
the American one, which is ran away in the last couple. I don’t know about you guys,
but I’ve been getting 30 percent returns in my super fund for the last two years straight.
I don’t feel like that’s sustainable growth in the stock market. Um, because the Australian
stock market is that pretty much flat since the last ship, say it might not get this hammered,
but it was still get hammered. And so what happens is stock markets get hammered. Business
sentiment and consumer confidence declines. American might go into a recession if trump
doesn’t cook the books and allows it to happen. John already cooking the books, Europe’s cooking
the books lack. Everyone’s doing their bit to like keep the
show on the road right now. Um, and we entered these point where property prices in some
markets can go flat, some markets they’ll decline and we’ve started to see that in Sydney
and Melbourne now. And you know, as an investor, as a short term, as a person who’s looking
for short term opportunities without doing major development, the next two years is going
to be hard. But as someone who’s got a 15 to 20 years strategy that wants to use smart
timing to by far out, there’s an opportunity. So mid cycle, slow down is different to a
full blown recession. So you get slow down in the market. Obviously things drop a bit,
but you don’t go into full recession mode like we did back in 2008. It’s like less.
Yeah, like because right now when you’re getting blamed, Berg in America,
reporting that it fuck apple has $257,000,000,000 of cash sitting in their reserve and all of
the big hedge funds around the world going into cash right now and said that they can
take advantage of the next two years and this weight reporting front front page of the website
that mom and dad investors at all in in America and that across the world. A bunch of the
tallest buildings are getting opened up in the next year and all of these other indicators
that you can look for for me will point. So it’s just that indicator of access
that everyone’s put everything into the market. No one’s got anything left to put in the building.
There’s excessive buildings. You coming to the peak of the market. Then if people don’t
have anything left to put in and people are selling, then it’s, you know there’s the show stops, but the show
only really stops for one and a half or one to two year period and then because it might
look like people that are all in. But what I was trying to say there is institutional
investors have a lot of cash in the bank. Smart investors have cash in the bank right
now to take advantage of these conditions and companies like apple just have all of
these cash that, that don’t know what to fucking do with it. They’re not the only ones in the
world that are in that position after a really good run over the last seven years. And so
people confuse this point as it’s gonna be like bank values. It’s going to be government
values. It’s going to be like world war three. It’s going to be blood on the streets and
certain people that are over leverage will get hurt. But what happens at the top of the cycle when
we get to like a recession, depression, like a JFC or you know, the 19 nineties like major
recession that we had or before that it was like 19, you know, just after 1970 type thing
where people get fucking smash, like a depression. Depression is apples or an apple doesn’t have
cash in the bank anymore. Like the institutional investors have just bought the heart in such
a way that they’re all in all of the governments around the world over leverage. All of the
banks are over leverage. Every single person that you know has been buying stocks in property
like a magnum because it’s running like crypto did at the end of last year. Two thousand
17 and nobody can bail anybody out because everybody’s stuffed. Yup. And so with that coming into that mid
cycle, slow down, why does that make it a good buying opportunity in 2019 anytime when not everybody’s all in and when
people are sitting back for no good reason except other people around them and sitting
back or fucking Carl on the today show told people that, you know, they shouldn’t be buying
property, you know, like what the fuck does a TV presenter now that anything except what
to read off the other side of this rain. Like it’s not their core business, it’s not. You
know what I mean? So like anytime as Warren Buffet says, when other people are being scared,
I think represents a buying opportunity, particularly when some markets have been running very,
very hot for a period of time. Yeah. So, but when people will be scared that
investing in property, the market’s going to go backwards and then they’ll lose money. That’s one possibility. Like at any time you
invest in anything, you know, I’m not saying go buy Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Darwin, Hobart,
or any regional market that’s had a good run over the last seven years. Today. Like this
very, very good. Picking Your markets in 2019, there’s going
to be less markets that will look awesome and it’s not going to be like buying in Sydney
three or four years ago where you just going to have a run. You really need to pick your
market in 2019 and pick the right suburb within that market as well. That’s going to be. I
know we’ve talked about this for years, but that’s going to be more important than ever
if you want to see success. It’s one market right now, which is southeast
Queensland and I already believed that the taste is because it’s run by 40 to 50 percent
in the last five years that no one’s seen reporting on that Brisbane, North Brisbane,
parts of the sunshine coast might represent those short term. Who knows what’s going to
happen in 2019. All I know that there are more and more and mold buying opportunities
in this market right now than I’ve seen in quite a while. And if you’re an investor with
a 15 year approach to doing this, then you know, you might be buying somewhere close
to the bottom in Brisbane right now. It could drop by five or 10 percent in the next two
years. Who knows how bad things are gonna get. But you’re some, your according to Herron,
Todd White, bis shrapnel, corelogic, Michael Matosich where somewhere very, very close
to a bottom or a rising market phase now in Brisbane. And after, you know, we’ve had one other period
in the last 50 years where we had 11 years without a double digit growth year. Yeah.
This would be like the first time in proper recorded property, data history that way going
into a period as long or as what for so long. Like with more population, with more jobs,
with more income, more infrastructure infrastructure. Plus what Brisbane and southeast Queensland
traditionally doing this second half of every major 20 year cycle, I just, you know, I think
2019 it’s going to be amazing, but it’s better than buying in 2021 when it’s gone up by another
10 or 15 percent. So what sort of investment should people be
looking at in 2019 or what sort of strategies should people consider that’s different to
what they should have considered? Maybe in 2016 you can’t buy everything because the tide
is not lifting all boats anymore. And in fact over the next few years we’re going to say
a lot of people, you know, call it out because the tide is dropping in some markets in some
areas. Um, I think like always we should be buying property with longterm potential for
quality capital growth. So quality capital growth, potential, low maintenance properties
that are easy to rent in suburbs with chronically under supplied vacancy rates, property, the
great cashflow like you and I always talk about, or the ability to add great cash flow
through a granny flat and property with the potential for some upside. So even if the
market goes flat or backwards by 10 percent in southeast Queensland in the next two years,
you’ve bought it at a good price and you bought something with potential to add some value.
And if the market doesn’t go flat or backwards in just nine times, then you might be able
to move yourself forward when other people around you can’t. Yeah. So it’s basically everything we’ve been
saying for the last couple of years, which is to pick your markets well, pick yourself
a within that market. Well buy the right property in that suburb or what the people in that
suburb one and look for good cashflow as well as opportunity to add value to the property.
So basically it’s a more risk adverse strategy. You’re not just investing in something for
the capital growth, you’re investing for the long term growth, not just the next couple
of years, but then also being in a good safe and solid cash flow position where you’re
making money from the rent of that property. So even if the market does drop by five percent,
you’re still making profit and you’ve bought in the right area so that you get that long
term growth. It’s just going back to the absolute fundamentals
of property. Now. I’ve been working with a lot of clients in Sydney and Melbourne this
year as of you and I’ve been really doing some analysis on the market this year as well,
and if I think about Sydney right then I’ll look at the central coast, Newcastle and I
look at Woolongong and then if I look at Melbourne and I’ll look at the Mornington peninsula
in Melbourne or I look at the genome genome, Jalong Peninsular in Melbourne to buy into
Jalong. Right now you’re probably looking at 800 K for a high quality home, walking
distance to the beach, maybe more anywhere in the Mornington peninsula anywhere close
to the city. You’re looking at way over one to one point 5 million bucks now. Anyway,
walking distance of the water in Woolongong. We’re talking about well over a million bucks
now for high quality home. Same with the central coast. Same with Newcastle,
like to be in the quality areas and these are all just little tin towns like these are
all regional market sitting next to a major metro market and the price points is sitting
at the new like seven figures, million dollar price tags. You can buy houses on the beach
in Brisbane that take all of those boxes that we just talked about, 450 to 500 k right now
like that. Two to three times cheaper and Brisbane is going to be the actual size of
Sydney and Melbourne. It’s not going to be a little jalong that he’s hoping on like a
high speed rail to make it part of Melbourne. It’s not Mornington peninsula, which is a
lifestyle thing. Sixty ks away from the city of Melbourne and Brisbane city. You know what
I mean? Like artist think Brisbane represents so much value right now or you’ve got to say
that Woolongong, Newcastle, Jalong all inflated by about two to three times their actual value
right now and I just don’t think it’s that. So that gets me excited. Like when I start
comparing product, there’s product and income versus income and number of people moving
versus number of people exiting and infrastructure projects and potential because it’s been so
flat for so long, it just gets me excited and then you overlay in election year when
people sit on the fences because all my God, there’s a new government, like there’s no
correlation between government in America or Australia or Europe over 38 period and
price point. It might be temporary, but it always swings like there’s an election year.
Like there’s potentially an American recession towards the middle to back of end of next
year. Maybe in a small list. Ryan recession over the next couple of on paper. Like a technical
one is just shitty sentiment. There’s, it’s hard to get money from the banks right now
for some people like these others. Hard for some people, easy
for others. So easy for people that are just getting started.
So easy for people that are in good financial position. So easy for people with good jobs
and good incomes. And so all of those things to me like, you know, as a 15 year investor
looking at the Patriots, I’m like, yes, like by the debt, not the top, you know, like if
your stock market invest in like a bunch of my friends are you by the 10 percent deeper
every year, every three years you buy the 15 to 20 percent tip every seven to 10 years,
you buy the 30 percent, Dave and I’ll look for the deep. I’m not like looking to buy
a top of market so that this excites me. I don’t run away from it. And that’s one of the biggest things I’ve
learned through investing in Crypto is by the deal until the 26 k that was like a speed
rating where like a crash course in market cycles is cryptocurrency and obviously property
works different to that and they’re on different cycles and stuff like that. But if you believe
in something by the dip, if you believe in property investing as a fundamental way to
build wealth than buying the dip shouldn’t be scary. Especially if you’re choosing the
high quality markets. The right time in the cycle, if you’re buying something that’s generating
passive income through positive cashflow so you can see out those cycles and still make
money, then why wouldn’t you buy the dip and don’t you know when I took it, when Ryan and I are
talking about Australia, we’re not saying you know by Sydney that went up by 90 percent
and by the 10 percent gap in Sydney, like Sydney is completely overvalued. If you understand
your history in the next 10 years, the next 10 years, don’t look great for Sydney from
a, you know, longterm capital growth perspective over that period because history shows that
Sydney always comes out of a GFC. Well and then for the 10 years after that, because
it looks so hard, it doesn’t perform as well as some other markets in Australia. Now, I’m
not saying history’s going to repeat, but you can learn from this history and you know,
Brisbane, if, if at the end of next year or the year after it’s been flat for 11 or 12
years, it gets even more exciting to me because it’s just like at some point that’s got to
replace, you know, and you know, that that stuff gets me excited. Like don’t lie Melbourne in the next year,
don’t by Sydney in the next year, like sit on the sidelines and suck it and say there.
But if you are thinking about achieving financial freedom over 15 to 20 years and you have money
and there is an opportunity to do something, then wrap your head around southeast Queensland.
Don’t take our word for it. Look at what the IBS is saying. Look at what Matosich saying,
look at what Paul logic vis htw are all saying. That’s just information that we’re feeding
to you based on what we’re reading from analysts in the market. And you know, um, I get excited
about a buying opportunity where sentiment shocking. So think 20, 19 from what I hear
can be a really exciting year to buy if you have good fundamentals and it’s very dangerous,
you need to buy if you don’t know what you’re doing. So make sure you have a plan, work your plan,
you get very educated about the market, the suburbs, the property type. Yup. I’m all just
do what everyone else is gonna do for the next three years, sit on the sidelines and
then you know, that’s, that’s an option for some people as well. You know what I mean?
Like sometimes doing nothing can be better than doing something. But for those of you
that have a simple plan like buying a couple of houses, adding a couple of granny flats,
knowing that you can do that for $400 in Brisbane right now, like how much cheaper is it going
to get bang than 400 k within 20 days of Brisbane right now. Like how much cheaper can it go? Exactly. Alright. So hopefully this has been
insightful to you guys looking at 20, 19 as a year to potentially invest in property.
I hope that you take these, these tips, this advice, this the way that we’re looking at
the market. Just thoughts with a grain of salt. Yeah, taken with a grain of salt. Apply
your own strategy to it would everything through the lens of your own strategy and what you’re
trying to achieve to find the best properties that suit you or to decide whether or not
2019 is a year that you want to invest in the property market. There’s going to be some
great buying opportunities out there. There’s also going to be some high risk markets out
there that may go backwards as well, so obviously you’d be very careful in 2019, but it can
be a great opportunity to move yourself and move your health forward and move closer to
your goal of financial freedom if you buy correctly. So I hope this has helped you. If you want
to get clear on your goals, if you want to talk to the team over at pumped on property
about the current state of the market where they’re at. If you’re thinking about buying,
but you’re nervous, you’re not exactly sure, you can book a free strategy session with
a team over there. If you got on property.com dot a u, you can book in a time that suits
you, have a conversation over the phone, talk about your situation, where you’re at, where
you want to be, and whether or not this is a good time to buy for you and what markets
you should be looking at. Then you can choose whether to work with pumped on property, get
their help if you want, because obviously they specialize in the southeast Queensland
market or you can go out and invest yourself and make those decisions yourself as well.
So again, check out on property Dotcom Day. You took a free strategy session time that
suits you. Otherwise we wish you the absolute best of luck in 2019. Whatever you decide
to do. We hope that you have a great year and we hope that you finished a year closer
to your financial goals, closer to your goal of financial freedom or united. Say One thing man, and I don’t
want to end the video and you’re like a morbid way, but I do want to say we’ll. Anyway. I’m
going to just as a disclaimer, the only thing that I know about markets is they go up. Sometimes
they go flat sometimes and sometimes I go down. If you’re an investor that still chasing
short term returns like any of those things could happen in the next 12 months to two
years for anyone in any type of stock business, property, commodity in the world right now,
but if you’re an investor looking for value either the next 15 years and you are using
that value investment driven approach. Then buying these little opportunities that come
up when they come up with confidence and not expecting anything for the first five years
from a meaningful perspective. Then the next couple of years will represent an incredible
opportunity in the right area and for some people the next couple of years will be the
years where they took money out of what they made in Sydney or Melbourne. They tried to
do more of Sydney and Melbourne and then I ended up losing money like these are the top
two years where people can get burned too, and I just, I want everyone to tread with
caution and go from a low risk approach, you know, make sure to different ideas from a
different bunch of people before you take action at all people that are taking action,
but in a lower risk way. So don’t just take what we say no out there. Get look at different sources
of inflammation. Gives much information. Educate yourself as much as possible before you go
ahead and invest. Yeah, no, it’s great. This is great and people love this. Thanks so much
for tuning in. Everyone, go ahead. If you haven’t set your strategy for 2019, check
out the video that me and Ben did on how to get your strategy right for 2019. That will
just really set you up for a great year. Otherwise, we wish you the best of luck. Thanks so much
for tuning in. Until next time, stay positive.